Economic analyst Paul Alaje has defended the recent remarks by Akinwumi Adesina, President of the African Development Bank (AfDB), on Nigeria’s economic regression, urging critics to consider the macroeconomic context rather than fixating on raw statistics.
Speaking on Politics Today, a Channels Television programme on Monday, Alaje said Adesina’s assertion—that Nigerians were better off economically in 1960 than in 2023—must be understood through the lens of inflation, exchange rates, and purchasing power.
“To hold such a position as AfDB President, he must have taken into cognisance the relative value of the dollar, inflation, and poverty levels,” Alaje said, countering the Presidency’s claim that Adesina’s statement lacked empirical backing.
Alaje acknowledged that Special Adviser to the President on Information and Strategy, Bayo Onanuga, was not entirely wrong in quoting Nigeria’s GDP per capita figures in absolute terms. However, he maintained that such comparisons overlook critical economic variables.
“Yes, Mr. Onanuga is also not wrong when you look at the figures absolutely,” he said. “But that’s only part of the story. What matters more is: what could that income buy? What was the inflation rate? What was the exchange rate? These are the deeper questions.”
He noted that although Nigeria’s per capita GDP has risen from $100 in 1960 to about $800 today, the real value of that income has significantly diminished. “When you look at the economic context of 1960, $100 then had a significantly higher purchasing power than $800 today,” he said.
Alaje also pointed out that the U.S. dollar in 1960 was backed by gold, giving it a more stable value compared to today’s fiat currency. “Economists are careful not to compare figures in absolute terms. What matters is what that money could buy then compared to now,” he stressed.
Adesina’s remarks, delivered during the 20th anniversary dinner of Chapel Hill Denham, had triggered sharp criticism from the Presidency. Onanuga dismissed Adesina’s claim that Nigeria’s GDP per capita fell from $1,847 in 1960 to $824 in 2023, calling the figures “unverifiable” and accusing the AfDB chief of speaking “like a politician.”
Onanuga argued that Nigeria’s actual GDP per capita in 1960 was $93, based on a GDP of $4.2 billion and a population of 44.9 million. He said the country’s economic progress could not be measured solely by GDP per capita, citing expanded access to education, healthcare, telecommunications, and infrastructure as signs of development.
But Alaje warned against reducing economic discourse to a binary debate. “It’s not a matter of who is right or wrong,” he said. “What matters is how we can work together to improve the country’s economic reality.”
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